Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs projected to make the biggest win jump in the NFL ahead of the 2026 season

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs projected to make the biggest win jump in the NFL ahead of the 2026 season

ow that the dust has settled on a historic NFL season, we can finally process the reality of the Seattle Seahawks hoisting their second Lombardi Trophy. Let’s be honest, they were the most improbable champions in American sports since the 1999 “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams, entering last year as massive preseason longshots. But while Seattle celebrates, the conversation inevitably turns to the league’s biggest disappointment: the Kansas City Chiefs.

After missing out on a chance for a fourth straight Super Bowl appearance, the Chiefs’ 2025 campaign felt like a fever dream. Even before Patrick Mahomes went down with an injury, the team never quite looked like the juggernaut we expected. Given how the Patriots eventually cleared a path to the Super Bowl, there will always be a massive “what if” regarding whether a healthy Mahomes could have stolen the show in the postseason.

With the 2026 season kickoff in Seattle still months away on September 10th, oddsmakers are already laying their cards on the table. The early win total projections are out, and it’s a crowded house at the top.

Eleven teams currently share the highest over/under at 10.5 wins: the Seahawks, Rams, Lions, Eagles, Packers, and 49ers in the NFC, alongside the Chiefs, Patriots, Chargers, Bills, and Ravens in the AFC.

For Kansas City, this 10.5-win projection represents the single largest projected increase in the NFL. After stumbling to just six wins in 2025, their worst output since 2012 the season before the Andy Reid era, Vegas clearly believes last year was a fluke.